Every time the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to meet, South Africans wait in bated breath to hear if their debt repayments will finally become easier to manage in July following a much-anticipated interest-rate cut. After the markets responded positively to the new Government of National Unity it remains to be seen whether that relief will come this month or not.
“It is difficult to predict what the MPC will do at this meeting at the end of July,” said Adrian Goslett, Regional Director and CEO of RE/MAX of Southern Africa.
“And while I am optimistic an interest-rate cut may come soon I would caution homeowners not to get their hopes too set on this.”
Many experts are predicting that interest rates will hold steady in July and are likely to drop by 25 basis points at the September meeting only.
The latest inflation stats are unchanged from April at 5,2% in May. It may take a few months before inflation drops closer to the MPC’s target of 4,5%.
Only then are we likely to experience our first interest-rate cut.
“The fact that the markets are responding positively to the GNU makes me optimistic for economic growth and, as a by-product, growth in the real estate market too,” Goslett notes.
“The positive global response to the GNU is also likely to have a positive impact on the local housing market, as it makes South Africa seem more stable and appealing to foreign investors. It all depends how long this positive sentiment will last. The outlook can change quite quickly depending on how the political landscape evolves.
“We are living through interesting times at the moment. I remain cautiously optimistic for what lies ahead and am hopeful to see more positive trends emerge within the local housing market as the year progresses.”
According to BusinessTech, however, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to cut interest rates by up to 150 basis points by mid-year 2025, which could result in the average homeowner saving R1 406 per month on their bond repayment.
The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) Monetary Policy Committee voted to hold rates in May, keeping the repo rate at 8,25% and the prime lending rate at 11,75%.
Economists expect the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to keep rates at 8,25% when its Monetary Policy Committee meets in July, but they hope interest-rate cuts will be pushed back to the next meeting in September as soon as possible.
Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop, however, is also more cautious in calling a September rate cut, pointing to a more moderate November cut or possibly in January 2025.
