Paarl Valley has seen the start of many historical movements, from the Great Trek to those championing the Afrikaans language.
Now, there’s the Cape independence movement, once thought of as a mere fringe phenomenon, which has been catapulted to a core issue with majority support, thanks in no small part to the Wellington-based Cape Independence Advocacy Group (CIAG).
Recent polling by Victory Research has shown a massive growth in support for Cape independence since 2020, with support for a referendum going from 47% to 68%, and support for independence itself growing from 36% to 58%.
The movement also has support across racial groups, with 82% of coloured respondents, 72% whites, and 47% black respondents sharing a desire for a referendum.
Most significantly, 80% of those polled who vote for the DA supported the push for a referendum.
But this wasn’t the only revealing response – only 31% of DA voters vote for the party because they like its policies, the remainder saying they voted for it either to keep another party out, or because it was the least bad option.
This leaves the DA vulnerable; the VF Plus, among several parties, supports independence and has made serious gains recently in by-elections, particularly in Ward 17 in Paarl last year, when it tripled its share of the vote and cut the DA’s share of the ward in half, and in Agulhas where it also showed significant growth.
The DA leadership has shown strong opposition to Cape independence; the party’s official position is that it would need to ask the Presidency for permission to hold such a referendum. However, this is not accurate; legal experts have argued that while a Section 127(2)(f) of the Constitution guarantees premiers’ right to call referendums there is no national legislation defining the exact process that has arisen from this.
The CIAG, run by Wellington resident and local businessman Phil Craig, has been lobbying for efforts to devolve power to the Western Cape. Its efforts have seen the creation of the Western Cape Devolution Working Group, a forum consisting of the DA, ACDP, VF Plus, AfriForum, the Cape Forum and Action Society SA (an anti-crime activist group started by Paarl resident Ian Cameron).
This has been a catalyst of sorts for the DA, leading to efforts from it to gain greater control over rail and policing in recent years.
Last year the group led a demonstration of 3 000 in Cape Town, among whom were many Wellington and Paarl residents, including the local Khoi Cochoqua tribe.
If the trend established by this movement continues, this local little part of the country could well make history again.
